TR EMERITUS

Football clubs set aside a lot of money for the transfer window. The Premier League will be here in a few days, and the transfer window is still open. As is customary, football clubs, managers, and players are busy working on last-minute deals before the season kicks off. During this time, you expect to see many players in pictures holding pens, contracts, and jerseys smiling for the camera. On the other hand, football clubs post welcome announcements on their websites. The transfer window is an exciting period for football fans who look forward to seeing how a new player's signing will affect the title race. Others are already on Everygame casino login page and other online betting platforms working their transfers wagers. There are many things about the transfer window period that football fans would be interested to know. 1. How the Transfer Happens A transfer occurs when two football clubs agree to terms of sale. The transfer takes place when the clubs agree to the contract. When a club is interested in a player in a different club, they send a representative to make an inquiry to the club with the player they are interested in. The representative finds out if the club is open to selling the target player. If the club is willing, they involve the player who is asked to consider the offer. The player is required to consult their advisor or agent. The clubs can negotiate the transfer fees and financial clauses if the player is open to the transfer. The club must also negotiate the contract with the target player. Alternatively, the club can use the "tapping up" approach, where they can persuade the player without involving the club. The practice happens a lot, but it is prohibited. 2. There are Free Transfers Sometimes transfers don't involve money. Free transfers often occur when a player's contract with a club expires. In this case, players have the freedom to move ahead and negotiate new agreements with the new clubs. Note that the same applies when their contracts are expiring within six months. Paul Pogba, Frank Kessie, Christian Eriksen, and Paulo Dybala are some of the best players with expiring contracts in 2022. The players are free to move without transfer fees, also known as a Bosman move. In 2021, players like Memphis Depay and Lionel Messi moved on a Bosman. 3. Players can be Signed Outside the Transfer Window Contrary to what most people think, the transfer window does not restrict player signing. Many clubs have signed players outside the window. There are several situations where players can be signed. Clubs are free to sign free agents. These are players that are not under any contractual agreement with football clubs. If a contract expires or a player's contract gets terminated, they become free agents and can be signed by football clubs at any time. According to the Bosman ruling, players can have a pre-contract agreement with a new club in the last six months of their contract expiration. In this case, no transfer fees are involved. Clubs can also sign new players on loan outside the transfer window. Most EPL clubs usually send their players to the lower divisions after the closing of the transfer period. Most clubs give out players on loan to allow them to get on-pitch experience. The loans usually last one to three months. When clubs have all players in certain positions injured, they are allowed for a temporary emergency signing. 4. Premier League Spends the Most on Transfers The English Premier League has proved to be the biggest spender on transfers over the years. In the 2021 summer transfers, Premier League clubs spent over €1.1 billion. The most expensive transfer was Jack Grealish from an Aston Villa midfielder to Manchester City; the transfer was over €100 million. It is worth noting that this is also the most expensive transfer of all time. If you are wondering why Premier League is the biggest transfer economy, remember that it has the highest coverage and holds most of the biggest football clubs worldwide. It, therefore, attracts massive viewership and television broadcast and sponsorship deals. 5. How do Clubs Identify Players? The first step toward identifying a player is putting together an acquisition task force. The team then creates a database of players and collects information on them. For instance, they could highlight the personality of the players, their performance on the pitch, and their value, and also analyze the chances of success in buying them. From the database, they point out a player with the composure, commitment, and mindset they need from players in their team. This process takes place a year in advance to give the acquisition department time to research and monitor the players before bidding. For instance, if they want to add a young player to the club, the player is watched throughout the season by the department to determine if they can sign to the team. Their off-field activities are also monitored to determine if there is anything about their personal life that would affect their future as players. Note that if a player exhibits a character that threatens their career off-field, they will not be considered regardless of how talented they are on the pitch. Conclusion Players' movement from one club to another has many moving parts. There are rules that govern the process. Clubs are allowed to bid for a player. The involved clubs are also entitled to turn down the requests. Similarly, players have the right to request a transfer in protest if the clubs they are signed to are unwilling to let them go.      Read More →

"The national reserves must not be disclosed. If this is made public, the SGD can be subject to attacks by currency speculators" is the mantra of the Singapore government. Enough of this nonsense. Speculative attacks happen during a currency crisis. A currency crisis is a consequence of chronic balance of payments deficits (it's also called a balance of payments crisis). This is how it goes. Due to trade imbalances ie a chronic deficit, the domestic currency of the country is weakened. Its central bank either refuses or is unable to allow the exchange rate to fall. To maintain the rate, the central bank has to keep buying its domestic currency. It continues the buying policy till it runs out of foreign reserves. This leads to a financial crisis as the value of foreign debt rises in relation to the weakened domestic currency. Foreign currency liquidity freezes because no one's going to sell the foreign currency to you if the exchange rate is forcibly maintained at unrealistic levels. Eventually the central bank capitulates because no one can go against the market in the long run. It is forced to devalue the domestic currency to bring it back to equilibrium. This type of scenario happens when the market anticipates that domestic policies will not be adjusted sufficiently to devalue the domestic currency. So they attack the currency by selling (shorting it) at the unrealistic high rate controlled by the central bank. Sooner or later when the government is forced to devalue, speculators buy back the currency at lower rates and make a killing. From the above scenario, you should already know of 2 things: (1). First BIG LIE. Currency crisis happens when the exchange rate does not respond to market conditions. There is sufficient empirical evidence that such scenarios happen in cases of a pegged currency, ie the rate is fixed to some other currencies. In the case of Singapore, MAS manages on the basis of a floating rate, using an official band to control daily volatility only. Should chronic trade deficits force the rate down, MAS will loosen the band to allow the SGD to devalue. So the above illustrated currency crisis scenario won't happen in Singapore. (2). Second BIG LIE. If the SGD is weakened and the MAS wants to cushion the devaluation, it is forced to intervene in the market to buy up as much of the domestic currency as possible. To do this, MAS makes use of its foreign reserves. Thus, the more forex reserves it holds, the stronger the MAS is to support the SGD. So here's the rub. Like all central banks in the world, the holdings of forex reserves of the MAS are all in the open for the world to see. It is currently about SGD 427 billion. There is nothing secretive about it, and it has nothing to do with national reserves. Currency speculators aren't watching your reserves. There are watching the market. If the market sees the currency as over-valued, they know sooner or later the central bank has to devalue. Just like a poker player, if he sees he has a winning hand, he continues raising the stakes. The Third BIG LIE is the increase in asset portfolio of the sovereign wealth funds. The numbers are impressive, but they don't explain how the growth happened. In 2022 Temasek portfolio value grew by S$22b to S$403b, GIC grew by S$280b. Asset growth can come in a number of ways: Internal growth (earnings ploughed back into the business): This is well and good and a pat on the shoulders. Currency translation : Not good. It suggests lack of hedging strategies which could have gone one way or the other way. I mentioned in a previous blog the MAS, as a central bank, has to take on market risks which was why they got hit with a S$8.7b revaluation loss in 2022. Unlike MAS, GIC and Temasek can make hedging strategies to minimise translation risks. Valuation : Good picks or bad picks,  investing expertise or pure luck, we can't criticise from hindsight. CIO has to make a call. But generally, the last 2 decades have been good to investors who ride along with the massive liquidity pumped out by central banks all over which pushed markets to record heights. But what we should be concerned is the vast amount of holdings in unquoted equities, in both Temasek and GIC. The valuation is anybody's guess. Capital injection : Any idiot could have increased portfolio value with fresh funds. This is not an insult but an aphorism. Leverage (funded by more loans): This is not bad per se, but it means increased risks. Debts for operational purposes are fine. Temasek has often spoken of taking advantage of cheap funds to leverage and it is creeping into the realm of private equity fund management business. Are they investing savings, or running a private equity business? We would prefer hard-nosed risk-averse managers, not Wall Street cowboys. Note that GIC and Temasek make annual contributions to the government of NIR (net income return) based on 50% of a computed 20-year annualised rate on their 'Net Relevant Assets', in basic terms, assets less debts. This means that in a given year, the NIRC (net income return contribution) has no relation to the actual profit or loss. In 2022, the NIRC was S$21.6b but it's not known how much came from GIC and how much from Temasek. We know MAS was unable to contribute due to its S$7.1b losses. Read : An increase in the government's assets is not an increase in national reserves which is assets net of national debt, and Singapore has one of the highest national debt in the world. Where did Temasek's S$22b asset growth come from? - Was it from its operations? Temasek's net profits in 2022 was S$10.6b. After deducting it's share of the NIRC (how much ???), it did not generate much to increase the asset portfolio. - Did it come from currency translation? It's porfolio geographical distribution showed Singapore 27%, US 21%, but the currency distribution showed SGD 49%, USD 34%, HKD 7%. This shows there were currency hedges. USD appreciated 1% and HKD gained 0.3% over SGD. That means translation gains were not significant. Although CNY gained 3.7% over SGD and Temasek had substantial Chinese assets, these are in American Depository Receipts, which are basically USD assets. - Did asset growth come from debts? Temasek had been taking on debt since 2014, rising from S$9b to S$90b as at 31 Mar 2022. In 2022 debt increased by S$8.5b. - Did it come from capital injection? There was no fresh capital injection, in fact equity decreased by S$4.6b in 2022. So where did the increase in S$22b in asset value come from? It came from a mix of operating gains (???), translation gains (???), and debt (S$8.5b) -- shared more or less equally. Where did GIC's S$280b asset growth come from?: - Did it come from profits? Who the heck knows. Checking out GIC performance is like looking into a black hole. We can only speculate. I'm betting my right arm GIC profits for 2022 wasn't anything to crow about for the simple reason that if it were so, the state media would have celebrated the current year ROI instead of hiding behind a 20 year annualised rate and about returns beating inflation rate. - Did it come from currency translation? We are looking at a black hole. But this much I can say. In terms of currencies, GIC has 2 sources of funds. One is from forex reserves from MAS. It is likely that these funds would be invested in the relevant countries so there is no asset-liability mismatch, no translation losses. Two is about S$1 trillion of SGD debt + land sales + budget surpluses which are subject to translation risks if invested overseas without a hedging strategy. - Did it come from valuation? Again, no way to tell. But note that GIC had 37% portfolio in bonds and cash. The bonds should be bleeding heavy losses in the current rising interest rate scenario and was a significant dampener on profits. - Did it come from injection of fresh funds? Aha, this, I have plenty to talk about. GIC gained a fabulous S$280b in portfolio value in 2022. PAP uno numero fan Singapore resident Polish blogger Critical Spectator could not help but to write with glee. His Facebook  echo chamber of fawning supporters and opposition haters asked with unabashed sarcasm where are the critics now?  Sadly lacking is the independent brain power to stop and ask where did the increase come from. Well, a substantial part of the increase came from fresh funds injected : - S$108b from net increase in securities issued (issuance less redemptions) - S$75b new RMGS issued (for MAS forex reserves transferred to GIC) - S$13b from sales of land. So S$196b fresh funds were provided to GIC to invest, of which S$183b was from government debt. And what did I say about capital injection? Any idiot can increase asset portfolio - it's not an insult but an aphorism. The more important question to ask is where did the increase of the balance of S$84b (S$280b-S$196b) of GIC's asset increase come from? I have no idea and nobody's talking. Don't we all know a narrative can be spin in several ways. GIC and Temasek squirmed in word salad instead of telling it as it is. GIC lectured about high falutin 'Rolling 20 Year Annualised Rate Of Return' that cannot be measured against anything. They will not plain speak about current year ROI. Temasek talked about their participation in Singapore Airlines' mandatory convertible bonds issue "enabling the airline to strengthen its balance sheet and to position it for the resumption of global travel" and Sembcorp Marine's rights issues "which strengthened its balance sheet and liquidity position, accelerating its strategic pivot to high-growth renewable and clean energy segments" when the whole world knows Santa Claus was bailing out two troubled companies.   * Article first appeared on Chempost - Down The Rabbit Hole.          Read More →

The Straits Times Facebook post that NCMP Leong Mun Wai 梁文辉 from Progress Singapore Party "submitted the petition to Parliament on behalf of 5 Ang Mo Kio residents" is misleading, half truth and half factual. There are 606 units affected by this batch of SERS. 361 Residents out of 606 units or 361 ÷ 606 = 59.57% of those affected supported the petition. Realistically only 5 residents can sign on every page of the petition as it's a requirement. How can 361 people sign on every page of the petition? Realistically, If 361 people signed on every page, the content of the petition will not be legible or readable beneath 361 signatures! No wonder Straits Times need $180,000,000 a year for the next 5 years or a total of $900,000,000 across the next 5 years of Tax Payers funds to stay afloat. They can't even make a Facebook post without spreading misinformation!   Prabu Ramachandran      Read More →