TR EMERITUS

Economists have slashed their GDP growth forecasts for Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, three of the region’s biggest economies. But for S’pore, MAS has revised higher the economic growth forecast for 2021 and expects that GDP growth could go beyond the initial 4%-6% yoy range forecasted. • MAS Chief Ravi Menon stated that the increase comes on the back of a smooth vaccination scheme (36.7% fully vaccinated so far) and stronger global demand. • Inflation numbers for 2021 were also revised higher, with the forecast for headline CPI increased to 1.0%-2.0% yoy, up from 0.5%-1.5% yoy. A bad outlook for tourism is the main reason for dimmer prospects in Thailand. Vaccinations are sluggish and hospital beds are running short. Tourists will stay away. Pandemic restrictions are another drag on regional growth. With many shops shut, Malaysia’s and the Philippines’ prospects don’t look good. Although growth forecasts have been revised upward for Indonesia, the region’s biggest economy, daily infections there have surged by 500% in recent weeks. The greatest risk for South-East Asian economies may be America tightening its monetary policy sooner than expected, which would increase the value of the dollar and make corporate dollar-denominated debt more expensive. GDP forecasts may fall further yet. Economist P/S: Modified at 2.49 pm on day of publication to include data on S’pore.   Cynical Investor Cynical Investor blogs at Thoughts of a Cynical Investor    Read More →

It is important for certain types of jobs to be done by locals, so that we are not over dependent on foreign workers. Examples of the jobs are nursing and construction worker. Someone pointed out the risk on over reliance on foreign workers during times of hostility. If there is hostility and the foreign worker return home, where are the workers that can take care of repair of roads and buildings that are damaged? Few locals will want to take up these jobs as the remuneration and working conditions are unattractive and they have to compete with foreign workers who are willing to work at lower wages. These jobs do require several years of training to develop the required skills. I suggest the following approach to overcome this problem. a) Appoint several local firms to develop and retain a core of these essential workers, e.g. public hospitals and local construction firms. b) These appointed firms should recruit apprentice who can acquire the skills over a few years and be guaranteed of jobs that pay quite well. These apprentices do not need to go to polytechnic or university. Instead, they can work on the jobs immediately after secondary schools. c) Give an option for NS men to work in the construction sector. After completing NS, they can continue in the career and enjoy a good wages. I hope that the ministers will consider this suggestion. We have to build up a core of local works to carry out essential work. We can use foreign workers to do some of the essential work, but we should not be over reliant on the foreign workers.   Tan Kin Lian        Read More →

If there is a certainty that ranks along side with death and taxes, it is the certainty that the average England Football Fan will screw up England’s image at the very moment when global cameras are focused on England. The recently concluded European Cup should have been a very proud moment for England. The English national team did exceptionally well, only losing in the final on a penalty shoot out and defeating strong teams like old rival, Germany on the way to the final. English soccer has never looked better. The much hyped “English Premier League,” (EPL) was looking like it was actually producing players that could go toe-to-toe with the best in the world. It wasn’t always that way. When I was growing up in England back in the 1990s, English football was overhyped. Everyone bragged about the EPL and highly talented players like Paul Gascoine (Gazza), David Beckham and Wayne Rooney and yet the performance of the national team was barely worth mentioning. England once reached the semis in the 1990 World Cup but that was pretty much it. This time, things seemed different. The English National Team reached the semi-finals in the 2018 World Cup in Russia and their run in the European Championship suggests that this was no fluke. England was showing the world that it had a national squad worth talking about. Like the World Cup winning French teams of 1998 and 2018, the current English squad is racially diverse and its recent successes should have been a showcase of a multiracial England showing its strength to the world. Unfortunately, the fans had other ideas and the behavior of the fans is such that whatever the national squad does on the pitch is irrelevant. One of the most prominent moments was fans without tickets gate crashing Wembley Stadium (all of them not wearing mask – welcome super covid spreader) and then attacking Italian Fans after losing the final. The “black” players on the English squad have been racially abused and just to show off English hospitality at its best, there was “booing” of the national anthems of the other countries in the tournament. As for the “sportsmanship” that the British are so famous for, there was the incident of shinning a laser pointer into the eyes of the Danish goalkeeper on route to the final. The “Good” manners of the England’s Football Fans can be seen at: [LINK] England Football Fans behaving like Sewer Rats is nothing new. I’m old enough to remember watching people get crushed to death on TV during Hillsborough and the collapse of the Heysel Stadium is also within my living memory. It goes without saying that whenever England or English clubs went abroad to play, everyone else thought – “Good God – not them again, let’s make sure they f** off back to where they came from.” The only difference with the recent incidents is that it comes at a time when the England football squad is actually giving English fans every reason to be happy. You’d imagine that fans would be encouraging the team to go onto something better after a good showing. What is interesting about England’s horrible football fans is that England is also the country that produced the ideal of what a man should be – well mannered, sporting and concerned about the welfare of others. The concept of the “English Gentleman,” has become the ideal of what high society in every part of the world should look like. If you look at “independence” leaders in the post-colonial world, many were produced by the system that produced English Gentlemen. Pakistan’s founder, Mohammad Jinnah, who famously said that he would rather be ruled by an Indian Terrorist than an English Gentleman, was also famous for ensuring that all his suites were made in Saville Row. Even when we in the colonies were trying to get rid of the English, we still looked up to the English as an ideal. So, how is it such that the nation that produced the ideal of what a man should be, can also be the nation that produces the most horrible specimens of humanity at every football game? As a matter of full and frank disclosure, I went to a public school (defined as the public that can pay). Churcher’s is a small school of no great significance. However, it’s still part of the “Public School” system in the United Kingdom, which plays a role in shaping many of the people who make the UK tick. While I am a beneficiary of Public-School education, there is an intrinsic problem with its very existence. In the British context, the guys who go to public schools are usually from families that can afford to pay hefty school fees along with the taxes that are partially used to fund the school system provided by the state. The guys I grew up with, were from what you’d call decent enough families. Sure, I didn’t grow up alongside the super elite who populated the more illustrious public schools. However, my friends were from pretty decent families. I grew up alongside the children of ICI executives and officers in the armed forces. The education was not just academic but social and learning good graces was part and parcel of growing up (as mentioned in previous postings, I actually encountered very few incidents of racism – helped that I was willing to do my part on the rugby pitch). The state system in the UK functions rather differently. The kids who end up in the system are less well off and often have less resources at their disposal. Teachers struggle alongside unruly kids and less cooperative parents. While there have been success stories from the state system, the problem in the UK remains that as a rule of thumb, the better academic results, which translates into better university placements and therefore better jobs still come from the public school system. Hence, the system that produces the English Gentleman coexists alongside a neglected system that produces the friendly people at football games. The guys who come from the system that produces the English Gentlemen know exactly how to manipulate the guys from the system that produces football fans. Both Boris Johnson (Old Etonian) and Nigel Farage (Dulwich College) are from the system that produces “Gentlemen.” Their manipulation of statistics on how EU money could be spent on the NHS is manifested by the racial abuse hurled at England’s black players. Unfortunately, the only solution proposed comes from leftist politicians who will make a few public pronouncements about the public school system. Such pronouncements make good headlines but don’t solve the real issue, which is to raise the standard of the schools in the state system so that they can compete with those in the public-school sector (which was happening in Petersfield when I was leaving – the local comprehensive got themselves a dynamic headmistress who rebranded it the Petersfield School and gave Chucher’s a good run for its money). Very little of that actually happens and until the schools in the state sector are boosted, English Gentlemen will be produced alongside England’s well behaved football fans. We in the colonies are also destined to follow the example of the mother land in keeping the majority less educated than they should be. In India, you have elite colleges like the Indian Institutes of Technology and Management, producing world class corporate leaders working alongside the colleges that are effectively printing qualifications. Here in Singapore, we have elite colleges like Raffles, Anglo-Chinese, Hwa Chong and Victoria running the entire system and the neighbourhood schools which can barely raise enough to buy an eraser and produce the academic results that somehow get forgotten about whenever the government wants to show the world how “educated” we are. Whilst it is important to train up the elite, its not sustainable if the elite only comes from one group. If you want a nation to grow you need to improve basic education for the masses. You cannot have one system that produces the ideal of manhood and another that produces sewer rats.   Tang Li *Although I’ve been based mainly in Singapore for nearly two decades, I’ve had the privilege of being able meet people who have crossed borders and cultures. I’ve befriended ministers and ambassadors and worked on projects involving a former head of state. Yet, at the same time, I’ve had the privilege of befriending migrant labourers and former convicts. All of them have a story to tell. All of them add to the fabric of life. I hope to express the stories that inspire us to create life as it should be.      Read More →